But… But… 2016!!!

One poll and six pundits got it right in 2016. What are they saying in 2020?

Six months after the 2016 election and three months into President Donald Trump’s first term, the Dividist was still trying to figure out what happened. His blog was lying fallow, but as he said then: “With the passage of time, and with judicious use of third person plural, the Dividist has created enough distance from the election to get back to work and begin posting again.” And with that, he selected among those few in the punditocracy who — unlike the Dividist — got it right and predicted that Donald Trump would win the Presidency. It was his first post after the 2016 election. The thesis was to “listen to a few notables who got it right… listen to what they said before the election and what they’ve said since.”

Good advice then. Good advice now. We are now less than two months from the election to determine whether President Trump will serve a second term or if he will be replaced by Joe Biden. Conventional wisdom informs us that Labor Day is when most Americans start paying attention to the election. A good time to close the loop, go back, look at the sources who got it right then and see what they are saying now. We’ll start with the current polls.